The Las Vegas real estate market is not one market — it's five. Single-family, condo/townhouse, new homes, rental, and high-rise each tell a different story right now. Here's the honest data on all of them.
Median price % change vs. March 2025. Source: LVR MLS.
$45K gap between listing ask and sold median indicates seller expectations still above market.
Inventory up 19.2% YoY. If trend continues at this pace, SFR approaches balanced market (6 mo) by late 2026.
Homes sitting 90+ days increased: 18.3% in Mar 2026 vs. 15.5% in Mar 2025.
March 2026 sales volume (+6.8% YoY) is driven partly by a low March 2025 base, not acceleration.
Prices down 3.8% YoY. New listing median ($290K) now below prior sold median — sellers are capitulating.
5.0 months is one bad month from crossing the 6-month buyer's market threshold.
90+ day share rose to 21.4% in Mar 2026 vs. 15.9% in Mar 2025 — significant deterioration.
Both segments weakening but at very different rates. Condo deterioration is nearly 4x faster.
Closings down 21.7% YoY while permits up 4.5% — builders still pulling permits into softening demand.
Avg rent down 4.0% YoY to $2,125. Tenants have pricing power they haven't had since 2020.
Volume down 9.4% YoY but avg price up 25.9%. The luxury high-rise market is its own universe.
| Metric | SFR | Condo/TH | New Homes | Rental | High-Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold / leased | 2,288 | 518 | 832* | 2,264 | 48 |
| YoY change in volume | +6.8% | −9.1% | −21.7% | +6.8% | −9.4% |
| Median price / rent | $480,000 | $295,000 | $540,000 | $1,975/mo | $367,500 |
| YoY price change | −1.0% | −3.8% | +1.6% | −1.0% | −10.9% |
| Months of supply | 2.8 mo | 5.0 mo | — | — | — |
| Inventory YoY change | +19.2% | +16.5% | — | +3.4% listed | −29.9% |
| Market signal | Transitional | Buyer's Advantage | Softening | Tenant-Favorable | Vol. Declining |
* New home closings as of Dec 2025 (latest available). SFR and Condo are March 2026.
Tourism is the engine of this city — and the engine is sputtering. Visitor volume down 7.5% in 2025, airport passengers down 5.9%, hotel occupancy declining. When fewer people visit, hospitality employment softens. When employment softens, housing demand weakens. These are leading indicators, not noise. Watch them.
Green = improving, red = declining. Gaming revenue is the lone bright spot.
Consumer confidence down 8.9% YoY — when people feel uncertain, they don't buy houses.
Near-term indicators are under pressure. But cities don't attract $20 billion in committed capital when insiders are running. The investment pipeline — from Sony Studios to Brightline to the A's stadium — represents durable, long-cycle bets on Las Vegas that will create jobs, drive population, and underpin housing demand over the next 5 years.
